Dan Popkey
Commentary

From The Idaho Statesman / Edition Date: 05-26-2004

I could get two bucks for a tip sheet on the ponies at Les Bois Park. Today, you get Popkey's Picks for 50 cents — free, if you're reading on the Web.

I'm looking forward to the November general election, where Republicans seek to protect their big lead in the Legislature and Democrats try to scratch their way back to relevance.

It's tough to defend a supermajority, so the GOP has more to lose. Democrats went from just a dozen of 105 seats in the Legislature in 2000 to 23 in 2002. This year, they're likely to add a half-dozen more.

Republicans will still win a huge majority with little contest from the donkey nags.

But Democrats, concentrating their limited strength, field a small stable of real runners who look like winners.

Top Democratic House prospects:

Democrats look to gain a seat in District 1, where Steve Elgar, an oceanographer of all things, has raised a staggering $26,000. Elgar, of Sandpoint, seeks an open seat. His emergence is as unexpected as a sighting of Captain Nemo's submarine in Lake Pend Oreille. Republican Eric Anderson is sinking fast.

In District 17, Boise's Central Bench, Sean Spence, a PR consultant who raised campaign cash for Mayor Dave Bieter, is a good bet to unseat freshman Rep. Kathie Garrett, who won by 637 votes in 2002. Spence has raised $26,000 and could set a House spending record.

In District 25, where the House and Senate Democratic leaders both are unopposed, GOP Rep. Tim Ridinger of Shoshone is in trouble again in a rematch with Donna Pence, a Gooding tree farmer.

Pence got within a nose in 2002 — 144 votes — and looks to benefit from Blaine County pride in Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry.

Top Democratic Senate prospects

In District 7 in Nez Perce County, Democratic Rep. Mike Naccarato has an edge over GOP Sen. Joe Stegner, despite Stegner's being one of the best lawmakers under the dome. The union boys are ticked and want one of their own, though Stegner's talent could carry the day.

In Northwest Boise's District 16, Rep. David Langhorst outclasses Clinton Miner by a mile. This one is the surest bet of the bunch.

In Southeast Boise's District 18, I make Kate Kelly a 2-1 favorite over ultra-conservative Dave Baumann, who struggles to raise money. This is retiring GOP Sen. Sheila Sorensen's seat; Kelly is a better fit in this moderate riding.

GOP House prospects

I can't recommend betting on any Republicans to take Democratic seats. But there are a number of races in play. If they break right, the GOP could add to its majority.

Republicans have a good crack in District 4 in Coeur d'Alene at Rep. Bonnie Douglas' seat. Douglas won by just 27 votes in 2002. Her weakness was exploited Tuesday by Mike Gridley, Coeur d'Alene's city attorney and a solid Democratic nominee. Marge Chadderdon, the GOP winner, has raised a lot of money and has the party establishment with her. In this swing district, the race will go to the wire.

In Latah County's District 6, Democratic Rep. Shirley Ringo is slogging through uneven ground again. She lost in the last presidential year, only to reclaim her seat with 53 percent in 2002. GOP challenger Earl Bennett, retired dean of the mining school at the U of I, is running hard and well, and will gather loads of dough for his saddlebags.

In District 16, Democrat Don McMurrian Jr. hasn't rubbed two nickels together to defend Langhorst's seat. That leaves an opening for Jana Kemp, a moderate in stride with this district.

In Bannock County's District 30, former FMC exec Paul Yochum threatens undistinguished Democrat Rep. Elaine Smith.

GOP Senate prospects

In District 17, Heather Anne Cunningham has the backing of the lawyers against freshman Democrat Elliot Werk, who sided with his wife, a doctor, on tort reform. Werk's ahead in money, $24,000 to $19,000, but this will stay tight.

In District 22, Boise and Elmore counties, Democrats defend a seat vacated by Fred Kennedy. James Alexander has an early lead, but the Republican nominee, Tim Corder Sr., has a shot at a GOP pickup.

In Bannock County's District 29, Sen. Bert Marley won by 672 votes in 2002. This time, he faces GOP wonk Evan Frasure, a former senator. This is the trifecta, Idaho's most interesting district. Democrats must hold all three seats and protect Pocatello Mayor Roger Chase, a possible candidate for governor in 2006. Republicans haven't shown much life, but Frasure is crafty enough to give Democrats a huge headache.

Democrats have a few sleepers:

George Currier in District 2 could knock off Rep. Dick Harwood, a font of horse hooey. Currier, of St. Maries, is a better candidate than June Judd, who came within 163 votes last time.

Democrats never win in Payette and Washington counties, District 9, but Sen. Monte Pearce is aggressively conservative and not especially well-liked by his GOP colleagues. He faces Democrat Bob Barowsky, who has been Payette County sheriff for more than 20 years. Barowsky is popular in vote-rich Payette County. If Barowsky works hard, this would be a real contest and manna from heaven to Democrats should he upset Pearce.

Southeast Boise GOP Rep. Julie Ellsworth is too conservative for her district, giving Phylis King a crack, especially absent Sen. Sorensen's coattails. Kate Kelly's well-heeled Senate campaign could help King.

A GOP long-shot

In District 2, Democratic Sen. Marti Calabretta of Osburn could have trouble with Joyce Broadsword. But if Calabretta and former Sen. Mary Lou Reed keep their paces, Democrats could sweep this district, taking out Rep. Harwood.